Equity valuation: A survey of professional practice

This paper reports the results of a scientific survey of the equity valuation practices of CFA Institute members with equity analysis job responsibilities. Using an instrument designed to minimize biases in prior valuation surveys and sampling a larger group than in previous studies (13,500 investment professionals, resulting in 1,980 valid completed questionnaires), this paper documents professional practices in the selection of equity valuation approaches, including specific model variations and key input preferences. Important differences in practice were observed across geographies and employer firm types.     

城市轨道交通直流牵引供电系统接触网残压

对于城市轨道交通来讲,在运行的过程中,直流牵引供电系统是使用最为主要的部件之一。在该系统应用的过程中,接触网残压问题是较为严重的问题,也是当前所出现问题当中比较普遍的一种。对于直流牵引供电系统来讲,当出现接触网残压问题时,可能会对人的生命安全造成严重威胁,同时也会使检修施工和接触网送电保护闭锁等相关工作受到影响,严重拖慢工作进度。因此,论文通过测试、仿真分析和模拟验证等方法,对城市轨道交通直流牵引供电系统接触网残压问题进行了研究与论述。     

The effects of choice set size and information filtering mechanisms on online hotel booking

Online booking is one of the most popular ways of making reservations for hotel guests. Thus, hoteliers are paying increasing attention to hotel website information presentation and design. The purpose of this study, then, is to examine the joint influence of choice set size and information filtering mechanisms on consumers’ decision confidence towards online hotel booking. Choice set size was operationalized through 3-, 9-, and 30-hotel room choice sets. Through experimental design, this study shows that the presence of an information filtering mechanism reduces consumers’ perceptions of choice overload with a large number of choices (30 choices), whereas its impact is attenuated with smaller choice sets (3 and 9 choices). In addition, choice overload mediates the impact of choice set size on decision confidence. Theoretical contribution and managerial implications are also discussed.     

动液面谱减法滤波

动液面滤波是油井检测动液面的关键技术之一。文章利用谱减法处理油井动液面信号,消除背景噪声的影响,并改进谱减法应用到动液面滤波,取得较好的滤波效果,从而提高对液面反射波位置的辨识能力。     

Understanding the impacts of ‘Grain for Green’ land management practice on land greening dynamics over the Loess Plateau of China

Land greening in China is regarded as contributing a great deal to greening of the Earth. The phenomenon is mainly attributed to climate change, arising atmospheric CO₂ and ‘Grain for Green’ (GFG) land management policies. However, limited knowledge is known how much land greening is from contributions of the GFG practice. Therefore, the study took the typical region of the GFG practice, the Loess Plateau, as the study area, and used 1982–2015 satellite-observed GIMMS3g normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, ERA-Interim climatic variables (precipitation, temperature and solar radiation) and atmospheric CO₂ concentration data with the help of a developed TPRC-based NDVI model to derive GFG-induced NDVI after 1999. Furthermore, this study tracked the spatial-temporal dynamics of GFG-induced NDVI and assessed contributions of the GFG practice to regional vegetation changes. Results showed that satellite-observed NDVI and TPRC-based NDVI both exhibited an increasing spatial pattern from the northwestern to southeastern Loess Plateau, but their greening trends were separately 0.0022 and 0.0009 per year in 1982–2015 (p < 0.05). Note that the satellite-observed greening trend was much steeper with a slope of 0.0056 per year after 2006 (p < 0.05). The subsequent analyses documented that GFG-induced land greening were largely responsible for the steep trend. In space, evident greening patterns began to be observed in the central Loess Plateau from 2006 to 2008, afterwards expanded towards eastern and southwestern Loess Plateau. In 2011–2015, the increase magnitude of GFG-induced land greening in the Loess Plateau averagely accounted for 8.5 % in comparison to estimated TPRC-based NDVI, but in six natural zones were various, ranging from 3.2%–15.7%. In some regions of central Loess Plateau, GFG-induced NDVI contributed even more than 20 % to vegetation increase. This study highlights that land use management contributes more to land greening dynamics over the Loess Plateau compared to climate change and arising atmospheric CO₂ concentration. These findings likely provide some valuable information for curbing or enhancing specific-location vegetation changes in future regional land management and planning.     

Personalized multi-period tour recommendations

During a trip planning, tourists gather information from different sources, select and rank the places to visit according to their personal interests, and try to devise daily tours among them. This paper addresses the complex selection and touring problem and proposes a “filter-first, tour-second” framework for generating personalized tour recommendations for tourists based on information from social media and other online data sources. Collaborative filtering is applied to identify a subset of optional points of interest that maximize the potential satisfaction, while there are some preselected mandatory points that the tourists must visit. Next, the underlying orienteering problem is solved via an Iterated Tabu Search algorithm. The goal is to generate tours that contain all mandatory points and maximize the total score collected from the optional points visited daily, taking into account different day availabilities and opening hours, limitations on the tour lengths, budgets and other restrictions. Computational experiments on benchmark datasets indicate that the proposed touring algorithm is very competitive. Furthermore, the proposed framework has been evaluated on data collected from Foursquare. The results show the practical utility and the temporal efficacy of the recommended tours.     

PRICE SETTING OF MARKET MAKERS: A FILTERING PROBLEM WITH ENDOGENOUS FILTRATION

This paper studies the price‐setting problem of market makers under risk neutrality and perfect competition in continuous time. The classic approach of Glosten–Milgrom is followed. Bid and ask prices are defined as conditional expectations of a true value of the asset given the market makers' partial information that includes the customers' trading decisions. The true value is modeled as a Markov process that can be observed by the customers with some noise at Poisson times. A mathematically rigorous analysis of the price‐setting problem is carried out, solving a filtering problem with endogenous filtration that depends on the bid and ask price processes quoted by the market maker. The existence and uniqueness of the bid and ask price processes is shown under some conditions.     

The European refugee crisis and the natural rate of output

The European Commission follows a harmonized approach for calculating structural (potential) output for EU member states that takes into account labour as an important ingredient. This article shows how the recent huge migrants’ inflow to Europe affects trend output. Due to the fact that the immigrants immediately increase the working population but effectively do not enter the labour market, we illustrate that the potential output is potentially upward biased without any corrections. Taking Germany as an example, we find that the average medium-term potential growth rate is lower if the migration flow is modelled adequately compared to results based on the unadjusted European Commission procedure.     

Nonlinear causality testing with stepwise multivariate filtering: Evidence from stock and currency markets

We examine the spillovers of the US subprime crisis to Asian and European economies and in particular to what extent currency and stock markets have been affected by the crisis. Linear and nonlinear dependencies are detected after pairwise and system-wise causality analysis. A new stepwise multivariate filtering approach is implemented after controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity in the raw data and in VAR/VECM residuals using multivariate GARCH models. Significant nonlinear causal linkages persisted even after the application of GARCH-BEKK, CCC-GARCH and DCC-GARCH modelling. This indicates that volatility effects might partly induce nonlinear causality. Perhaps new short-term asset-pricing models could be developed to explain this stylized fact. These results might also have important implications for hedging, trading strategies and financial market regulation.     

Post‐Cameralist Governance: Towards a Robust Political Economy of Bureaucracy

I develop a robust political economy of bureaucracy by highlighting the conditions necessary for hierarchical administrative bodies to govern protectively and productively, but not predatorily. These conditions are residual claimancy and jurisdictional competition. I make this argument by exploring a post‐cameralist interpretation of governance. Cameralism arose as a governance philosophy in the fractured principalities of seventeenth‐century Germany following the Thirty Years' War. Post‐cameralism focuses not on particular cameralist governance strategies but on a paradigm which sees governance as an activity provided within a larger exchange order, rather than imposing itself on that order as in more conventional treatments of public economics. While a post‐cameralist conception of governance comes with its own challenges, such as tensions with normative visions that promote self‐governance, it nonetheless presents an intriguing synthesis of monocentric and polycentric insights.